FX Forecasting Example
2000 Day Forecast of EUR to GBP
Data from 04/01/2000 to 12/11/2019.
Click image to see the full size forecast in new tab
- Forecast is based on the last 5153 daily data points, of which only the most recent 1000 are shown on the graph.
- Left hand scale is the value of EUR brought by 1 GBP
- Bottom scale is in currency market trading days, counted from the start of the data series.
- Actual history data is shown to the left of the vertical line.
- The central forecast projection is shown by the red line to the right of the vertical line.
- Each of the thin green lines to the right of the vertical line represent an individual Monte Carlo Simulation forecast. There are 100 individual simulations in this model run.
- The orange area in the curve to the right above/below the central forecast projection defines the range on each of the forecast days where the prediction probability is between 20% and 80%, thus the extreme forecasts are excluded.
- The 20% / 80% boundary gets wider the further in time from the last data point due to the buildup of uncertainty.
- The density of simulation forecast line overlap gives the best indication of short term movements.
- This forecast was made using the Oracle Crystal Ball tool.
You should not rely on this example forecast.