Our Objective...

To enable you to use probability based simulation to:

• Accurately asses the likelihood of achieving your forecast or plan.
• Accurately predict the most likely outcome if you make no changes.
• Accurately identify the plan or forecast elements that have the biggest impact on the expected plan or forecast outcome.
• Accurately re-forecast to give you a high degree of certainty that your forecast is likely to be very accurate.

Your Situation...

• Business Critical Forecasts: Your business depends on achieving critical operational targets but you are unsure as to the accuracy of the forecasts.

• Complexity of Forecasts: Your forecasts are built up from many elements and it's unclear how each element affects the overall forecast. As a result you don't know whether or not to trust the forecast.

• Forecast vs. Plan Gap: There is a gap between your plan and your current forecast and you're not sure where to focus resources to most quickly close the gap.

• Managing Expectations: You expect to need to change plan and you need to forewarn your stakeholders (shareholders, banks, managers and staff) as to most likely outcomes.

• Managing Risk: You know that you are unlikely to come in on plan but you need to know where you might miss the plan and by how much.

Our Solution...

Our 1 day board and senior management team workshop will enable you to understand what Probability Based Forecasting is all about and how to use it to reduce risk and uncertainty in your organisation.

Beyond the 1 day workshop we are able to work with you to design and implement the necessary changes to integrate Probability Based Forecasting into your planning and budgeting cycle.

Workshop Outline

The workshop is based around techniques to enable you to asses the probability of achieving planned outcomes and identifying the best course of action ito take to bring you back on plan. NO technical knowledge is required for the workshop which is focused on the straightforward, simple and practical application of the principles of Probability Based Forecasting.

Workshop Outline...

 

Module 1

What Probability Based Forecasting is all about.

• Why no one ever hits their forecast. .
• Basic business probability.
• How bookmakers make money in an uncertain world.
• How likely are you to reach your forecast.
• What is the risk of missing the forecast.

Module 2

Why Probability Based Forecasting will change your business.

• How certain are you to achieve the plan?
• What elements of the plan are the most risky?
• What elements of the plan most affect the result?
• Calculating the odds on your plan's success or failure.
• Helping explain the risks and contingencies.

Module 3

Calculating the most likely outcome of your plan.

• Introduction to a simple technique for accurately predicting how likely you are to achieve your plan.

Module 4

Identifying the most effective way to get your plan back on track..

• Working with the technique to identify what to do to most effectively get your plan back on track.

Module 5

What you should do next.

• Review and adapt existing plans and strategies.
• Review current planning processes.
• Adopt a regular cycle of scenario planning.

Contact us on +44 (0) 7948 308 686 for more information and prices

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