Forecasting and Simulation....

"These oracles they from Apollo heard, And brought from Pytho home the perfect word: " (Tyrtaeus - c650BC)

Tactical Forecasting - Exploring and Predicting Trends
Most business forecasting is short term, typically looking ahead 3 to 12 months. These techniques generally fall into the conventional categories of Time Series Forecasting or Causal Modeling. These approaches are particularly valuable when the margin for uncertainty is limited, either because there is some stability over time (as in sales forecasting) or because the relationships amongst the underlying factors are known to some extent (as in manufacturing process forecasting). Get help >

Simulation and Probabilistic Forecasting - Exploring and Predicting Risk
These techniques are more sophisticated than simple tactical forecasting because the forecasts are built using probability theory. Though these techniques are more difficult to apply they produce very much more useful results which explicitly identify the chance (probability) of achieving a target, the most probable outcome and the risk of missing the target but achieving the most probable outcome. Within this class of techniques our preferred technique is Monte Carlo Simulation. Get help >

Strategic Forecasting - Exploring Markets and Technology
Strategic forecasting is generally long term looking ahead 3 to 5 years and sometimes more. The most well known techniques are the Delphi method (which today can be run quickly and cheaply using resources available in the Social Media Blogsphere), Scenario Analysis and Technology Forecasting. These approaches, amongst others, are particularly useful in times of uncertainty and discontinuous change. Get help >